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Будет ли Индия покупать S-400 Triumf и пренебрегать санкциями США?

Да…

Я верю, что Индия купит систему S400, несмотря на то, что США навязывают соглашение о противодействии Америке через санкции (CAATSA).

  • Первая и по большей части причина состоит в том, что сделка уже подписана, и единственный оставшийся основной процесс — это доставка систем и оплата. Я не думаю, что Индия собирается отступить от такого сценария. И мы должны помнить, что Россия была и всегда будет крупнейшим партнером Индии в сфере разведки. Они помогли нам, когда те же США в прошлом почти начали осаду Индии.
  • Secondly India have a serious need for a long range airdefence system. India is hoping to build a multilayer airdefence and ballistic missile defence system. We developed our own ballistic missile defence system. Now we need an efficient and powerful long range airdefence system to compliment it’s shortfall in the number of fighter squadron. S400 is the best system out there at this moment and it can suit Indian conditions very well. And more importantly it have better capability against fifth gen fighter than any other airdefence system in the world. Currently india is looking for a way to efficiently counter the deployment of the J-20 fifth gen fighter by China. So S400 will perfectly suit the need of the country.

Another step taken by the US was to offer the THAAD missile defence system to India. The US president said

US is willing to sell the THAAD system to India if it backout from the S400 deal from Russia

At first it way seem to be a fair deal but it is not. Let’s just look into the THAAD system more closely.

  • The Americans were always behind the Russian’s in the field of airdefence technology. It’s because of the simple reason that US always depended on their high number of fighters to win a war. But the Russian’s didn’t had this luxury. So they developed huge number of airdefence systems and became so good at it.
  • The THAAD is not a reliable system. It’s perfomance in the middle east is somewhat questionable. And it lag behind the S400 interms of range, effectiveness and versatility. ( I am not going to discuss the problems with THAAD system in this answer. But I can provide detailed information if anyone want )
  • Most importantly in the past India went to US for buying this same THAAD system. But at that time US was not interested in that and disappointed India. So the US is willing to sell India the THAAD just because we went for the S400.

So lets just discuss what India can do and what will be the consequences. ( these are all my assumption ,because I am not an expert in International relations or law. All the below points are from online sources )

Getting sanctions from US is not good for any country. It causes many many problems. So what can India do about this.

How can India respond?

India isn’t Saudi Arabia or Britain that the US can push around; it is poised to be the world’s third largest economy. Due to India’s large market and manpower, it is the US that needs India more than the other way round. Instead of getting into a heated diplomatic scrap, India should explore ways to sidestep CAATSA’s punitive measures in a number of ways..

  • Because CAATSA is an American law that prevents global free trade, it is patently illegal and can be challenged.
  • New Delhi can complain at the World Trade Organization and threaten counter sanctions to protect its legitimate interests.
  • India’s leverage as the world’s second largest weapons importer needs to be communicated clearly to the Americans because clearly they keep forgetting this fact. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an ambitious $250 billion plan to modernise India’s military and a hefty chunk of that amount will go to buy advanced weapons. The US — which has been the biggest beneficiary of India’s arms diversification programme in the past two decades — will end up as the biggest loser if it slaps sanctions

Another important matter I like to discuss now is, should India remain depended on other countries for weapons.

I really belive that CAATSA could be the much needed wakeup call India needs to fast-track Make in India. For, diversification has its limits. Even if India decides to spread its imports evenly between Russia, the US, Israel and Europe, the reality is that all four are interlinked. For instance, Israel is touted as a reliable arms supplier and also a country with shared strategic interests. However, a number of Israeli weapons systems such as the Green Pine radar incorporate American technology at some level. This gives the US leverage against Israel, which may be arm twisted to apply sanctions on India.

So we should really start to think about empowering our indigenous manufacturing. Even though there are works going on to strengthen the the make in India it is not in the correct pace. It is a serious concern for our national security.

If a India buy more than 50% of defence equipments from another country , it can never be better than the supplier


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THANK YOU……

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